Some sugar shipments could reach Indian shores before October 15 as the government moves to ease domestic supply pressures, although the quantity that will arrive by then remains uncertain, according to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF).

Brazil is currently the only practical source for additional sugar imports, with Thailand facing a supply shortfall of its own, NFCSF President Prakash Naiknavare told on Sunday. The government recently approved duty-free imports of up to 1 million tonnes of raw sugar after domestic prices surged amid concerns over supplies.

Union Consumer Affairs Minister Pralhad Joshi said the fall in sugar output was linked to the unexpected outbreak of red rot disease and the impact of El Niño conditions, which have affected agricultural production in India and globally.

“Because of the red rot disease, which was very unexpected, and El Nino, overall agricultural production, including sugar, has come down not only in India but globally…we are very concerned about it, which is why we have immediately taken several measures.”

He also said India's annual sugar requirement is around 280 lakh tonnes, while the country currently has a surplus of more than 20-25 lakh tonnes, but imports were being pursued as a temporary measure ahead of the festival season.

Sugar shipments from Brazil typically take 40 to 45 days to reach Indian ports. Additional time is needed to transport the cargo from ports to mills, making it difficult to determine how much sugar could reach the domestic market before October 15.

"So, it is difficult to put a number on how much can arrive before October 15th, but the possibility of some shipments arriving by then is good," Naiknavare said.

The import process involves several stages, including approvals from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade, allocation, letters of credit and shipment scheduling. Port congestion in Brazil could further affect delivery timelines.

The government is also unlikely to treat the October 31 arrival deadline as an absolute cut-off, Naiknavare said.

"I believe they would be willing to consider shipments arriving after that date too. I don't think it will be treated as a hard and fast rule."

India on August 20 permitted duty-free imports of up to 1 million tonnes of raw sugar after retail and wholesale prices rose 24 per cent in one month to ₹56-60 per kg.

Port-based states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are likely to receive imported sugar sooner because of their proximity to major ports.

Northern states could receive the cargo later after it is moved inland by road or rail. The timing will depend on port clearance, freight and domestic transportation capacity.

Despite the recent price surge, the NFCSF has retained its estimate for India's net sugar production in the 2025-26 season at 279 lakh tonnes.

The estimate excludes around 24 lakh tonnes of sugar expected to be diverted towards ethanol production

For the 2026-27 season beginning October 1, opening stocks are estimated at around 35 lakh tonnes, compared with monthly domestic consumption of roughly 22 lakh tonnes. The federation expects 15-20 lakh tonnes to remain by November, when early crushing should begin bringing fresh supplies into the market.

India had been permitted to export 20 lakh tonnes of sugar but shipped only around 8 lakh tonnes because international prices made exports unattractive. The government banned sugar exports until September 30 to strengthen domestic availability and contain prices.

The government has also intensified action against stockpiling and speculative trading following criticism from Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra.

Naiknavare said authorities had directed industry representatives to ensure adequate market supplies and curb speculative pricing.

Ex-mill sugar prices, which had reached ₹65-67 per kg excluding GST, fell by around ₹5 per kg in tenders opened on Saturday. The NFCSF expects conditions to improve further as state-level monitoring continues.

The government's measures have included physical verification of mill stocks, a 200-tonne limit on traders, restrictions on bulk buyers and inspections of warehouses operated by traders and mills.

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